Tully predicts Labor will scrape in on preferences
ELECTION guru Cr Paul Tully is predicting Labor's Shayne Neumann will hang on to win in the seat of Blair but the result may not be known for days after tomorrow's election.
But Cr Tully, a psephologist who predicted the exact number of seats won by Labor in the last state election, is also forecasting a heavy election defeat for Labor.
Cr Tully said he expected Oxley's Bernie Ripoll to also hold off the challenge from the LNP's Andrew Nguyen.
Yesterday, betting agency Sportsbet had Mr Neumann and his LNP opponent Teresa Harding tied at $1.85 to win Blair.
Cr Tully said "the result in Blair might not be known for a number of days while postal votes come in" and that Mr Neumann would scrape home on preferences.
"Firstly, Shayne is the sitting member and for the past six years he has treated every day as part of an election campaign," he said.
"Secondly, he is getting preferences from Greens and Family First.
"Katter's Australian Party has got a split ticket... so one half will recommend a preference vote for Labor and the other half will be Liberal.
"So Shayne is picking up significant preferences. The ones he is not picking up are from Palmer United. But I think Katter is likely to do better in Blair than Palmer.
"Even if Palmer does reasonably well he will mainly be taking votes from the LNP.
"Sitting members also tend to win postal votes because they are highly organised and have lists of postal voters from previous elections. The reports I have been getting from Labor scrutineers for both Oxley and Blair are that their pre-poll voting is going well." The QT understands that Mr Neumann will be getting preferences from Family First due to his support for church groups in Ipswich, but Family First candidate Elwyn Denman's how-to-vote cards have not been sighted in Blair in pre-polling.
"If he doesn't hand them out then the benefit to Shayne would be limited," Cr Tully said.
Cr Tully predicts Labor will win 53 seats and the Coalition 95 with Bob Katter retaining his seat for the KAP in Kennedy and independent Andrew Wilkie holding on in Denison. The forecast has a margin for error of two to three seats.