Win mathematically possible but statistically unlikely

EDITORIAL: It's fair enough that candidate for Hinkler Rob Messenger is saying he "won't give up the fight" for the Hinkler electorate until all the votes have been counted.

He is calling for a recount and re-examination of preferences, in a last-ditch grasp to win the seat.

But on the Chronicle's website, Mr Messenger has made an interesting remark: "To claim victory before the AEC declares the winner in a tight race shows inexperience and a hint of arrogance."

Strange - it didn't take his party leader Clive Palmer long to make his first claim of victory, long before the postal votes had been counted.

And even stranger that Mr Palmer has now changed his tune and says he won't win the seat of Fairfax due to so-called "voting irregularities" - despite the two-candidate preferred count still putting him ahead of his rival, Liberal National Party candidate Ted O'Brien.

While at this point it appears to be mathematically possible for Mr Messenger to win, it is statistically unlikely given the previous preference flows.

One wonders whether a recount really would be necessary in either seat - or whether it's just time to let the numbers speak for themselves.



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