LEAKED POLL: Good news for Tully, bad news for Duffy
A LEAKED ReachTEL poll commissioned soon after Paul Pisasale resigned as mayor has revealed Acting Mayor Paul Tully is in a strong position ahead of the mayoral by-election on August 19.
The poll was conducted by ReachTEL on the evening of June 13 with 1109 residents in the Ipswich City Council boundaries.
The QT broke the story that the poll had been conducted but only now can we reveal the results, which were leaked by a person the QT agreed not to name.
ReachTEL asked the questions before the nine candidates that are now in the race, including Cr Andrew Antoniolli, had put up their hands, but Acting Mayor Paul Tully and Mr Duffy were on the list of poll candidates.
Cr Wendt and Cr Morrison did not nominate for the mayoralty but were also on the list of five options.
The first question was: "If a by-election for Ipswich Mayor was held today which of the following would receive your first preference vote?"
Cr Tully was a clear leader on 36.2%, Cr Morrison received 17.2%, Cr Wendt 9.6% and Mr Duffy was last on 3%.
A total of 33.9% said 'other'.
Mr Duffy received 8.91% of the vote at the 2016 election when former mayor Paul Pisasale stormed to victory with 83.45% of the vote.
The person who commissioned the June 13 poll was keen to establish what is known as the 'recognition factor'.
In answer to a question "What is your opinion of Paul Tully?" the results were notable.
The response was 36.2% "favourable", 32.4% "neutral" and 24.6% "unfavourable".
Only 6.9% of respondents said they had 'never heard of him'
Cr Tully had a 93.1% recognition factor.
In answer to the question "What is your opinion of Gary Duffy" only 4.7% of those quizzed answered "favourable".
A further 31.7% said "neutral", while 20.5% said unfavourable while 43.1% said they had "never heard of him before". The QT asked leading analyst Dr Paul Williams, a political scientist at Griffith University, to dissect the results.
"It is not so much how many know you or don't know you it is the gap between the favourable and unfavourable," he said.
"Tully is in net positive territory (of 11.6%) so he is doing extremely well , whereas both Turnbull and Shorten for example are deep in negative territory.
"High recognition factor and net favourable bode very well for him."
Dr Williams wasn't surprised at Cr Tully's recognition factor.
"He is so prominent in the media everybody would have thought Tully was the mayor before (Paul) Pisasale reinforced that impression in everyone's minds," he said.
Mr Duffy has a negative 15.8% difference between "favourable" and "unfavourable", combined with a 56.9% recognition factor and 3% first preference result.
"That is not a good place to be," Dr Williams said.