Labor predicted to retain Ipswich stronghold
LABOR'S Ipswich seats are safe, but the looming threat of One Nation is likely to peel votes from the party in the upcoming state election, a renowned political expert says.
All four of the party's incumbent MPs in Ipswich, Ipswich West, Jordan and Bundamba have been preselected to run in the State Election in October.
Political analyst Dr Paul Williams says the four seats are unlikely to change hands, but Labor's primary vote is likely to drop and Pauline Hanson's party will be the primary challenger.
This is despite the party's "disappointing" results in the Bundamba by-election.
Once called the dark horse in the fight for the Ipswich seat, One Nation only polled at 27.74 per cent of the vote.
Dr Williams, a senior lecturer at Griffith University's School of Humanities, Language and Science, said things had only "soured" for minor parties since the by-election.
He said One Nation still had a chance to poll well in the state election.
"Federally, the Green vote has come down and the One Nation has come down even more," Dr Williams said.
"They (One Nation) will get to double-digits in seats like Bundamba and Ipswich.
"But I can't see how they're going to be competitive given we don't know where LNP preferences will go."
Dr Williams said the rural demographic of Ipswich West would help One Nation's numbers, but it would still not be enough to win, even with preferences.
Earlier this month, incumbent MP Jim Madden sent ripples through Labor's factional caucus when he defected to the party's left faction.
Dr Williams said this move would likely enhance his performance, rather than alter it.
"Factional politics passes under the radar for most voters," he said.
"Having said that, if opposing candidates make a big deal in the electorate … voters will take umbrage at that but not enough to spill him."