History on Madden's side: Newman brand could cost Choat
HOW much the LNP brand is on the nose in Ipswich West will be known by this evening with sitting MP Sean Choat needing to defy history to retain the seat for the conservative side of politics.
Mr Choat holds his seat with a margin of 7.2%, and has more room to move than Ipswich LNP MP Ian Berry who is on 4.2%.
In Bundamba, the LNP's Stephen Fenton is a rank outsider to topple sitting Labor MP Jo-Ann Miller.
Labor has chosen Jim Madden, a popular local Somerset councillor, to run against Mr Choat in a shrewd strategic move.
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Mr Choat is regarded as a hard-working and likeable candidate, but Griffith University political analyst Dr Paul Williams said that likely won't be enough to save him or his nearby LNP colleagues.
"Out of the three of them I think Choat has the best chance, but I am giving all three of those seats to Labor," he said.
"Things like asset leases and cost of living are important in those modestly healed seats."
If Mr Choat loses his seat Mr Williams said the reason would be simple.
"It is the (Campbell) Newman brand," he said.
"There are a lot of good LNP members who will go, as we saw with good Labor members and ministers in 2012.
"Cameron Dick, the former Attorney General and Education Minister, was so well liked in Greenslopes and that is why the swing was so small against him, but it was just enough to get rid of him.
"They really liked Kate Jones in Ashgrove but they realised to get rid of (Anna) Bligh they had to get rid of Jones first."
Ipswich West has never been held consecutively by the conservative side of politics.
That is what Mr Choat is up against. The regional reach of his seat may keep him in the race.
"In rural and regional type seats, the personalities of local candidates and members count more than in urban centres, and that is why Choat has probably got the best chance of all three LNP candidates of success," Mr Williams said.
"But he is in the wrong seat and the tidal wave is against him."
Mr Choat said he had received plenty of support on the ground in recent days.
"That does give you a lift, but the thing that I have tried to do since I was elected is make politics local again," he said.
"It is all about who is going to do the task on the ground and get as much as they can locally, and that has been my thing.
"I know history says I am up against it, but they are not going to get me without a fight.
"Either way, it has been a privilege and I've made a lot of friends along the way."
Mr Madden said there were two issues the people of Ipswich West had to consider.
"We only get one chance to stop asset sales in Queensland and that is at this election," he said.
"All the major assets will be sold if the LNP are returned to power."
Mr Madden, who said asset sales and long-term leases were the same thing, outlined his focus for the future.
"When I am looking ahead at the possibility of me being elected the member for Ipswich West, my number one issue is jobs for the youth and job creation.
"That is what I will be working hardest on," he said.
Mr Madden said he'd had more than 100 volunteers working on his campaign and that he was delighted with the way the past month had unfolded.
"The feedback we are getting is that there is a mood for change with regard to both the government and the position of the member for Ipswich West."
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