QLD VOTES: Expert reveals his predictions for Ipswich seats
POLITICAL expert Dr Paul Williams has seen many politicians come and go over his years watching Queensland's political machine at work.
In the lead up to this State Election, Dr Williams has kept a keen eye on the One Nation movement, paying particular attention to preference deals which he says will play a major role on November 25.
Dr Williams has revealed his predictions for four seats covering Ipswich City and how 'the One Nation factor' is likely to play out. The four seats are Bundamba, Ipswich West, Ipswich and the new seat of Jordan, which takes in Springfield.
In Bundamba there are six candidates with three independents challenging the major two parties.
Without a One Nation candidate Dr Williams has no doubt the seat will be returned to Labor under Jo-Ann Miller.
"Jo-Ann might even find there will be a swing to her," Dr Williams said.
In Ipswich West the contest will be between Labor's Jim Madden, and One Nation's Brad Trussell.
Dr Williams believes the vote for One Nation is likely to be highest in this seat, although he said it would be more significant if high profile candidate Malcolm Roberts had parachuted into that seat, instead of Ipswich.
He believes Labor will likely be returned to this seat. The LNP has preferenced One Nation ahead of Labor in Ipswich West. In Ipswich, Dr Williams believes the most likely outcome is that Labor's Jennifer Howard will be returned, but not without a fight.
He said One Nation was "in with a real chance" to take the seat covering most of the city where the One Nation story began.
"(Malcolm Roberts has) got a better than average chance for a One Nation candidate. Ipswich is the home to One Nation but Ipswich has also changed a lot in 20 years," he said.
"Down town Ipswich is not that dissimilar from down town Brisbane these days."
The contest will also be hot in the new seat of Jordan covering most of Springfield and the communities south east of Ipswich.
Labor has heavily promoted its candidate Charis Mullen this year.
Dr Williams said while there was an underlying expectation this seat would go to Labor, he couldn't be sure.
One Nation and LNP are fielding candidates. There are also two strong local independents with Pastor Phil Cutcliffe likely to split the conservative vote. Dr Williams said this contest was too hard to judge.
Did you know?
This 28-day 'snap' election campaign is two days longer than the previous two Queensland state elections.