ANOTHER CLOSE ONE: Cr Paul Tully talks about his predictions for the upcoming Federal Election.
ANOTHER CLOSE ONE: Cr Paul Tully talks about his predictions for the upcoming Federal Election. David Nielsen

Tully says Federal election will be a closely-fought affair

ELECTION prediction guru Paul Tully has tipped local Federal MPs Shayne Neumann and Bernie Ripoll to hold their seats at the next Federal election.

But Cr Tully has also predicted the election, likely to be he held in early September, would be another closely-fought affair with the balance of power to once again to be decided by independents and minor parties such as the Greens.

Cr Tully is an election specialist who tipped the outcome of the last State Election with remarkable accuracy when he nominated the exact number of seats Labor would win in their cataclysmic loss to the LNP.

Mr Ripoll holds the Federal seat of Oxley by 5.8% while Mr Neumann has a margin of 4.2% in the seat of Blair.

"On the figures, a year ago Bernie Ripoll and Shayne Neumann would have been in big trouble," Cr Tully said.

"But there has been a big turnaround and by current polling their seats are quite safe.

"There was a poll in October that showed Labor and the Coalition on a two-party preferred vote to be 50/50.

"At the moment there is a slight margin to the Coalition but in the last 12 months several significant things have happened. Tony Abbott is carrying a big negative vote from women.

"At the moment there is a slight margin to the Coalition but in the last 12 months several significant things have happened. Tony Abbott is carrying a big negative vote from women.

"The Coalition said the mining tax was going to destroy Australia and the carbon tax would be the end of civilisation as we know it ... but that hasn't come to pass so they will be non-issues at the next election.

"With asylum seekers, the ALP has adopted the Liberals policy of a centre at Nauru so it is hard for the Liberals to criticise that.

"The LNP government in Queensland is helping Labor with the sackings that have been made and decisions in relation to hospitals, ambulances and a whole range of issues.

"That backlash against Campbell Newman is likely to increase and people do make a decision ... on how they will be voting based on their feeling towards the local government in their home state."

"That backlash against Campbell Newman is likely to increase and people do make a decision ... on how they will be voting based on their feeling towards the local government in their home state."

Cr Tully, who said the fall in interest rates would also help Labor, added that he thought it would be "another line ball election and again we could have the Greens and independents decide who will be the government".

In 1975 Labor lost all but the seat of Oxley in Queensland but Cr Tully said Labor was a good chance to hold their current eight Queensland seats.

Mr Neumann said he expected a "tough and tight" election nationally and locally and would stand on his record in Blair.

"I think Ipswich people need to think very carefully about whether they want Newman's Queensland to become Abbott's Australia," he said.

Liberal National candidate for Blair Teresa Harding said Ipswich and Somerset residents "want to see real action" on issues such as "the rising cost of living, federal government waste and the growing debt that the Gillard-Greens Government is racking up".

"Only the Coalition will deliver a strong and prosperous economy and restore small business and household confidence," she said.



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